UAE: Will petrol prices drop further in September?

Petrol prices in the UAE could see a slight dip in September if global oil prices remain soft in the coming days. The recent trend in oil markets has been downwards, following Opec+’s decision to increase crude output in September, with Brent crude hitting a closing low of $65 per barrel. However, prices have shown modest recovery over the past few trading sessions.

The average closing price of Brent crude in August was around $66.91 per barrel, lower than July’s $69.87. Petrol prices in the UAE are adjusted monthly, usually at the end of the month, based on the performance of international oil markets.

As of Sunday evening, Brent and WTI crude stood at $67.73 and $63.66 per barrel, respectively.

For August, petrol prices in the UAE were slightly revised downwards compared to July. Super 98 petrol is priced at Dh2.69 per litre, down from Dh2.70, while Special 95 petrol dropped to Dh2.57 per litre from Dh2.58. E-Plus 91 saw a small decrease of one fil, now at Dh2.50 per litre.

Petrol costs play an important role in household and commuter budgets, especially as vehicle ownership continues to rise in the UAE alongside population growth.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, noted that crude oil has been trading in a relatively tight range, supported by strong US refinery demand, inventory reductions, and rising exports. “Thin summer liquidity has capped rallies,” Hansen said, adding that geopolitical factors—including Russia-Ukraine peace efforts and US pressure on India regarding Russian imports—provide short-term support. However, any easing of sanctions is expected to be gradual. He also pointed out that Opec+ supply increases and slowing demand growth continue to exert medium-term pressure, keeping prices largely range-bound.

Here’s a glance at petrol price trends over recent months in the UAE (Dh per litre):

Month

Super 98

Special 95

E-Plus 91

Jan-24

2.82

2.71

2.64

Feb

2.88

2.76

2.69

Mar

3.03

2.92

2.85

Apr

3.15

3.03

2.96

May

3.34

3.22

3.15

Jun

3.14

3.02

2.95

Jul

2.99

2.88

2.80

Aug

2.69

2.57

2.50

Sep

2.90

2.78

2.71

If oil prices maintain their current lower trajectory, residents and motorists in the UAE may see slightly more relief at the pump in September, continuing a gradual easing of petrol costs seen over the past months.

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